Sales volumes of aggregates and ready mixed concrete were 4% higher and asphalt 10% higher in the second quarter of 2015 than the same quarter of 2014.
For the half year to June, sales were also positive in comparison with 2014, with aggregates and concrete 7% higher and asphalt sales 10% higher.
There are nonetheless indications that construction markets may have slowed down temporarily.
Seasonally adjusted data for the second quarter, which strip out the effect of seasonal factors, such as weather variations and public holidays, indicate lower underlying sales in the second quarter of 2015 compared with the first quarter.
On this seasonally adjusted basis, second quarter asphalt and concrete sales were broadly flat (+0.3% and -0.7% respectively) and aggregates sales declined (crushed rock -3.7% and sand and gravel -7.2%) relative to the first quarter of the year.
While there may be “technical” reasons contributing to the second quarter seasonally adjusted figures (see panel below), the latest GDP figures also indicate that second quarter construction output was flat compared with the first quarter.
Anecdotal information has suggested some flattening of demand growth, and it is possible that some markets experienced a pre-election slow down followed by a rebound from June.
However, expectations for construction output and mineral products demand remain positive for 2015 and the following years.
Activity will be supported by further growth in housing construction, improvements in commercial and infrastructure work, including the implementation of major investment programmes, and evidence of economic activity spreading beyond London and South-East England.
Nigel Jackson, Chief Executive
| Asphalt | RMC* | Crushed Rock |
Sand & Gravel |
Mortar | Construction Output (£m) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 3.9% | 11.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 15.0% | 0.1% |
| 2014 | 8.8% | 3.6% | 13.5% | 7.2% | 18.6% | 9.8% |
| 2014Q3 | 6.7% | 7.3% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 17.3% | 10.1% |
| 2014Q4 | 9.3% | 3.1% | 13.9% | 2.7% | 10.4% | 8.6% |
| 2015Q1 | 14.3% | 8.4% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 4.7% |
| 2015Q2 | 10.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 7.1% | N/A |
| Asphalt | RMC* | Crushed Rock |
Sand & Gravel |
Mortar | Construction Output (£m) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 3.9% | 11.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 15.0% | 0.4% |
| 2014 | 8.8% | 3.6% | 13.5% | 7.2% | 18.6% | 9.5% |
| 2014Q3 | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 2.2% |
| 2014Q4 | 4.2% | 0.3% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 2015Q1 | 1.3% | 0.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | -1.2% | -0.2% |
| 2015Q2 | 0.3% | -0.7% | -3.7% | -7.2% | 0.2% | (0.0%) |
(.) Based on ONS 2015Q2 GDP preliminary estimates.
* Sum of fixed & site plants.
Second quarter seasonally adjusted figures
Seasonal adjustment of quarterly data helps interpretation by removing regular fluctuations between quarters, for example due to weather conditions and public holidays.
It enables meaningful quarter on quarter analysis. Seasonal adjustment factors are calculated based on historic data, taking account of the average seasonal variation in, for example, weather conditions.
If actual weather is milder or more severe than average, seasonally adjusted figures may fail to capture the full impact on quarterly output data.
For example, the unusually strong sales in the two recent winter quarters (2014Q4 and 2015Q1) meant that the MPA sales uplift in the second quarter of 2015 was less marked than usual and this may have contributed to the lower seasonally adjusted results for the second quarter.
